After big years from the 2021 and 2022 markets, 2023 was a different beast. “Inventory and sales were down in 2023 as compared to 2021 and 2022,” says Kristy B. Naddell, a Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker at Douglas Elliman Real Estate in Cutchogue. “Sales remained steady but were down nearly 30 percent from the peak in 2021.”
This was the result, she notes, of higher interest rates and a lack of inventory, which led buyers to hold out for properties that they truly felt were right for them. “Most buyers on the North Fork are second-home buyers, so they don’t need to buy,” she says. “When rates were lower and everyone wanted to flee the city, the mindset was that they do need to buy.”
“The 2023 North Fork market was defined by incredibly low inventory and transaction volume, while prices stayed at or near the highs seen in 2021 and 2022,” confirms Bridget Elkin, Compass North Fork Founding Agent, who is based in Southold. “The total number of transactions was lower than any year in the past decade.”
Although sales were down, Naddell says, prices are up and have remained consistent across-the-board. As of January 2024, there were 73 homes available over a million dollars, and only 48 homes available under a million, demonstrating, she says, “a major shift in the prices from the previous years.” In 2021, for instance, 186 homes sold over a million and 327 under; the following year, 156 homes sold over a million and 242 sold under. Last year, 147 homes sold over a million and 196 homes sold under a million, demonstrating a clear trend toward more expensive properties.
Inventory in 2023, says Sheri Winter Parker, a Licensed Real Estate Broker with Corcoran in Cutchogue, was ‘slim pickings’. “Demand has been high, but inventory low,” she says. “So it’s been super competitive.” Although interest rates, she concedes, have impacted some buyers, there have been ways around these limitations, like adjusting budgets to suit buyers’ needs.
As for 2024’s predictions, Sheri Winter Parker believes the market will continue to be interesting. “Rates are dropping, but we also have an election,” she says. “I see it starting off with a bang, and I have a feeling it is going to be a good year. Inventory is still low, and demand is still high.”
Kristy B. Naddell says she is “optimistic” that sales will be “strong” in 2024. “I have a lot of new inventory coming on the market,” she says. “As more listings come on, I think buyers will revamp their searches, especially as interest rates are expected to drop.” Naddell is also working with a series of new builders, she notes, and expects to have 11 new construction properties completed in 2024 and 2025, bringing even more opportunities for buyers to the North Fork.
Elkin is also optimistic. “Inventory will remain low, but we anticipate a meaningful uptick by spring or summer 2024, more in line with the few years before 2023.” she says. “With interest rates slowly dropping and the narrative around the economy improving, buyers are feeling more confident they’re ready to purchase.”
One final prediction from Sheri Winter Parker? “I think,” she says, “that Q1 is going to be a wild ride.”
